Cambridge ridings could have big impact on provincial election

With residents heading to the polls June 2, some local ridings could have a big impact on the results of the provincial election.

A poll analyst has named three as "ridings to watch."

In 2018, Kitchener-Conestoga, Kitchener-South Hespeler, and Cambridge saw tight voting margins.

"The Kitchener area is shaping up to be a real battleground," said Éric Grenier, writer at the Writ on a post on the website.

He said seats like Kitchener–Conestoga and Kitchener South–Hespeler often determine which party forms government in Ontario.

With the PC's rural base, and the Liberals' and the NDP's urban base, parties will need to add votes from the suburbs and small cities.

"It’s always the party that does best in the suburbs and small cities that end up winning," reads the post. 

Last election, PC candidate Mike Harris Jr. only won Kitchener-Conestoga over the NDP by 1.6 per cent.

Grenier wrote that the results of the last two federal elections "should also make the PCs sweat."

In Kitchener-Conestoga, the vote swung from the Conservatives over to the Liberals in both 2019 and 2021.

In Kitchener-South Hespeler, Amy Fee is not seeking re-election for the PC party, leaving no incumbent in the riding.

"What’s interesting about Cambridge heading into the 2022 Ontario election, though, is that (Belinda) Karahalios will not be running for re-election as a Progressive Conservative," reads the post. 

Karahalios was elected as a PC candidate in 2018 but was ejected from the party's caucus in 2020.

According to Grenier, a split in the right-of-centre vote in Cambridge could "make things a lot easier for either the NDP or the Liberals to win the seat."

You can read the full post at the Writ here.